Evolving International Relationships of India since the 1980's

Introduction

In this article, we will look at International Relationships across the world from the 1980s to date, with specific focus on the diplomatic policies of India across the world and their development.

Since the 1980s, the global geopolitical landscape has undergone significant changes, marked by the rise of China and the rapid transformation of Asia. These changes have brought about complex international relationships between Western countries, Europe, China, and Asia.

The 1980s: The Cold War Era Continues

The 1980s were marked by the continuation of the Cold War and the heightened tensions between the United States and the erstwhile Soviet Union (USSR). This period saw the proliferation of nuclear weapons, regional conflicts, and proxy wars between the two superpowers. The Western countries, Europe, and most of Asia remained firmly aligned with the United States, while India and China maintained a policy of non-alignment.

In 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall marked the end of the Cold War and the beginning of a new era in global politics. This event paved the way for closer relations between Western countries and Europe on the one hand, and Asia on the other.

The 1990s: The Rise of Asia

The 1990s saw the emergence of Asia as a major economic powerhouse, with the rapid growth of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. China also began to open up its economy to foreign investment, leading to significant economic growth, while India’s economic liberalisation of 1991 helped to create an economy that was market and service oriented and expanded the role for private and foreign investment.

This period also saw the establishment of closer relationships between Western countries, Europe, and Asia. The United States, in particular, sought to deepen its ties with Asia, as evidenced by the Clinton administration's "pivot to Asia" policy.

The 2000s: China's Rise and the War on Terror

The 2000s saw the rise of China as a global economic and military power. This period was marked by China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which paved the way for its integration into the global economy. It also saw the United States launch the War on Terror in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks. This led to closer cooperation between Western countries, Europe, and Asia in the fight against terrorism.

The 2010s: Shifts in Global Power

The 2010s saw significant shifts in global power, with China emerging as a major competitor to the United States. The Obama administration continued the Clinton administration’s "pivot to Asia" policy, which helped deepen the United States' engagement with Asia. At the same time, the European Union started to face significant challenges, including debt crisis and the refugee crisis. This led to increased tensions between Western countries and Europe, particularly over issues such as immigration and economic policy.

The 2020s: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Growing Tensions

The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in 2019, has had a significant impact on international relationships between Western countries, Europe, China, and Asia. The pandemic has highlighted the interdependence of the global economy and the need for closer cooperation between nations. However, the pandemic has also led to growing tensions between the United States and China, particularly over issues such as trade, intellectual property, and human rights. This has led to increased competition between the two countries, which could have significant implications for the future of global politics.

It remains to be seen how these relationships will evolve in the coming years. The United States under the Biden administration has signalled a shift towards greater cooperation and engagement with other nations, particularly in the areas of climate change and global health. However, the ongoing tensions with China and the challenges facing Europe due to the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict which could complicate these efforts.

As of today, the future of international relationships between Western countries, Europe, China, and Asia will depend on a complex mix of economic, political, and social factors. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, it is more important than ever for nations to work together to address common challenges and pursue shared goals.

India has been an important player in international diplomacy for several decades. In the period between 1995 to 2021, and has developed strong diplomatic relationships with several countries across the world, including China, Europe, USA, and also the economically weak nations.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards China

India and China share a complex relationship that has been marked by several historical and territorial disputes. Despite this, India has pursued a policy of engagement and cooperation with China. In the period between 1995 to 2021, India and China engaged in several high-level diplomatic talks, including the 2003 landmark agreement on the "Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question." This agreement laid the foundation for resolving the border dispute between the two countries. However, tensions between India and China flared up in 2020 following a border clash in the Galwan Valley. This has led to a significant deterioration in the relationship between the two countries, with India adopting a more assertive stance towards China, while attempting to keep the relationship isolated from frequent open conflict, while conducting a series of diplomatic initiatives at the border level, as well as at international levels.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards Europe and the U.K.

In the period between 1995 to 2021, India and Europe engaged in several high-level diplomatic talks, including the 2004 India-EU Summit. This summit led to the adoption of the "Joint Action Plan" which aimed to deepen the relationship between India and the EU in areas such as trade, investment, and science and technology.

India has also pursued a policy of engagement with the United Kingdom, with both countries establishing a strategic partnership in 2004. In 2021, India and the U.K. signed the "Roadmap 2030," agreement which set out a comprehensive plan for deepening the bilateral relationship between the two countries in areas such as trade, defense, and technology.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards the United States

India and the United States have developed a strong strategic partnership over the past two decades. This partnership has been marked by closer cooperation in areas such as defence, trade, and energy.

In the period between 1995 to 2021, India and the United States engaged in several high-level diplomatic talks, including the 2000 "New Framework for the US-India Défense Relationship" and the 2005 "US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement." In recent years, the strategic partnership between India and the United States has continued to grow. In 2021, India and the United States signed the "US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership," which aimed to deepen the bilateral relationship between the two countries even further.

India's Diplomatic Policy towards Economically Weak Countries

India has pursued a policy of engagement and cooperation with economically weak countries across the world, particularly in the African continent. India's engagement with these countries has been guided by the principle of “South-South cooperation”, which aims to foster economic development and promote mutual cooperation among developing countries. In 2008, India and Africa signed the "New Delhi Declaration," which aimed to deepen the economic and strategic relationship between India and Africa.

India has also established several capacity-building programs in African countries, aimed at promoting human resource development and strengthening institutional capacity. These programs have included the Pan African e-Network project, which aimed to provide telemedicine and tele-education services to African countries, and the India-Africa Forum Summit 2015, which aimed to deepen the relationship between India and African nations in areas such as trade, investment, and technology.

In addition, India has also pursued a policy of engagement with Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Pacific Islands for establishing several economic and strategic partnerships with countries of these regions, including the India-CARICOM Joint Commission in 2009, which aimed to deepen the economic and strategic relationship between India and Caribbean nations; and has established several capacity-building programs in these countries, aimed at promoting human resource development and strengthening institutional capacity. These programs have included the establishment of centres of excellence in various sectors, including information technology, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals. India’s relationship with the Pacific Island nations has deepened with the establishment of the FIPIC in 2015. The recent meeting between Prime Minister Modi and the leaders of the India-Pacific Islands Developing States (PSIDS) at New York (2019) focused on the view towards building close partnership with the Pacific Island nations and work closely to advance mutually beneficial developmental goals. 

Moving forward, India's diplomatic policy will need to be guided by a mix of economic, political, and social factors. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, it is more important than ever for nations to work together to address common challenges and pursue shared goals. India's diplomatic policy will need to reflect this reality and aim to deepen the relationship between India and other nations across the world.

This brings us to the importance of the G20 forum where India is a member and has been elected to hold the Presidency of the G20 in this year 2023. The G20 group of countries, also known as the Group of Twenty, is an international forum that brings together the world's leading developed and emerging economies to discuss global economic and financial issues. The G20 consists of 19 countries and the European Union, representing around 85% of global GDP and two-thirds of the world's population.

Importance of the G20

The G20 has emerged as a key platform for international cooperation on global economic issues, providing a forum for countries to discuss and coordinate policies that can promote sustainable and inclusive growth, create jobs, and reduce poverty. The G20 has become increasingly important in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the need for greater international coordination and cooperation to address global economic challenges.

It plays an important role in promoting international trade and investment, ensuring financial stability, and addressing global issues such as climate change, inequality, and social inclusion. As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, the G20's role in promoting global economic cooperation and ensuring economic stability has become even more crucial.

Agenda of the G20

The G20 agenda is focused on promoting sustainable and inclusive growth, creating jobs, and reducing poverty, while being committed to promoting open and fair trade, and to ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are shared by all members of society. The G20 agenda is guided by a number of principles, including the importance of cooperation and coordination, the need for inclusive and sustainable growth, and the importance of promoting economic stability and financial reform, across the world.

Policies of the G20

The G20 has implemented a number of policies which include efforts to promote investment in infrastructure, to increase access to finance for small and medium-sized enterprises, and to promote the development of skills and education. It has also implemented policies to promote open and fair trade, including efforts to reduce trade barriers and to promote the development of regional and global trade agreements. It has worked to address issues related to global financial stability, including efforts to improve the regulation and supervision of financial institutions, and to promote transparency and accountability in financial markets, and has played an important role in promoting the Paris Agreement on climate change, and in supporting efforts to promote sustainable development and reduce inequality.

The presidency of the G20 is transferred from country to country on an annual basis to ensure that the organization remains inclusive, representative, and responsive to the changing needs and priorities of its members. By rotating the presidency, different regions and countries have the opportunity to lead the organization and bring their unique perspectives and priorities to the table. This helps to promote continuity and stability, while also ensuring that different countries have the opportunity to shape the agenda and priorities of the G20. This ensures that the organization's decision-making processes are more visible and transparent and helps to promote public trust in the organization and ensures that its policies and priorities are aligned with the needs and interests of its members.

During the 2016 G20 summit, which was hosted by China, the focus was on promoting innovation and sustainability, and the launch of initiatives such as the Green Finance Study Group and the Global Infrastructure Connectivity Alliance, while Japan's presidency in 2019, was focused on promoting innovation and digitalization; with the aim to “realize and promote a free and open, inclusive and sustainable, human-centered future society” and recognize the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals as being at the core of the development agenda and other global issues. 

The 2020 G20 summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia, focused on promoting global cooperation to address the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts, and launched initiatives such as the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator and the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). These initiatives helped to promote international cooperation and solidarity in the face of a global crisis, reflecting the unique priorities and leadership of Saudi Arabia as the host country.

India, as the host of the G20 summit in 2023 is focused on promoting the universal sense of one-ness, via the theme 'One Earth, One Family, One Future'. Essentially, this affirms the value of all life; human, animal, plant, and microorganisms, and their interconnectedness on the planet Earth and in the wider universe. The theme also spotlights LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), with its associated, environmentally sustainable and responsible choices, both at the level of individual lifestyles as well as national development, leading to globally transformative actions resulting in a cleaner, greener and bluer future.

The period from the 1980s to the present day has seen significant changes in the international relationships between countries across the world. The emergence of Asia as a major economic and military power, and the rise of China as a global competitor to the United States, have led to complex and evolving relationships between these regions.

India's diplomatic policy towards China, Europe, the United States, and economically weak countries between 1995 to 2021 has been marked by several successes and challenges. While India has developed strong partnerships with several countries across the world, it has also faced several challenges, particularly in the areas of border disputes and trade negotiations.

India’s soft diplomacy is reflected in its international relationships. Its vision is optimistic and is based on the principles of non-violence, largely pluralistic governance and a non-threatening global leadership. The legacy of India’s culture, history and ancient philosophy has shown the world that India is a largely harmonious nation that has assimilated various different religions and ethnicities over the centuries, and has never forgotten its own culture and the philosophy of peace, and has been a stalwart champion of inter-civilizational and inter-cultural exchanges.

The current government has created innovative ideas by blending traditional soft-power elements of dialogue and mutual agreements, with the inclusiveness of the Indian diaspora in its diplomatic efforts, the global promotion of Yoga, and initiatives such as ‘Destination India’ and ‘Know India’ in advancing the nation’s national interests.

Since 2014, the Indian government under the leadership of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi has invested substantial resources to enhance India’s diplomatic capabilities. Embassies across the world have been increased, and higher levels of interactions with regional organizations like ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) and BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), has intensified cultural, economic, and diplomatic relationships with its Eastern and South Asian neighbors through the Look–East Policy, the Act–East Policy, and the Neighborhood First Policy, all of which are focused on fostering stronger international ties which would translate into commercial and strategic benefits for India.

“There are three trips you take to India: the one you think you’re going to have; the one you actually have; and the one you live through once you go back home”.

References:

1.      "The End of the Cold War and the United States: Implications for Asia-Pacific Security," by Michael J. Green (International Security, Vol. 14, No. 4, Spring 1990).

2.      "The Rise of China and Its Implications for Asia," by Kishore Mahbubani (The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 27, No. 3, Summer 2004).

3.      "The US 'Pivot to Asia' and China's Response," by Yun Sun (The Pacific Review, Vol. 27, No. 5, December 2014).

4.      "India's Economic Reforms: A Brief History and Some Lessons," by Arvind Panagariya (Columbia University Academic Commons, 2003).

5.      "Europe's Refugee Crisis: Assessing the Factors that Contributed to the Unfolding of the Humanitarian Catastrophe," by Ana L. Revenga and Maria Luengo-Prado (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7815, October 2016).

6.      "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Global Trade: Systemic Implications of Supply Chain Resilience," by Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett (Centre for Economic Policy Research, March 2020).

7. India's Diplomatic Policy towards Economically Weak Countries:"New Delhi Declaration" signed by India and Africa: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2008, April 8). India-Africa Forum Summit: New Delhi Declaration. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/30528/IndiaAfrica+Forum+Summit+New+Delhi+Declaration
8. Pan African e-Network project: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (n.d.). Pan African e-Network Project. https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/ForeignRelation/Pan_African_e-Network_Project.pdf
9. India-Africa Forum Summit 2015: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2015, October 29). India-Africa Forum Summit 2015: Outcomes and Deliverables. https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/26036/IndiaAfrica+Forum+Summit+2015+Outcomes+and+Deliverables
10. India-CARICOM Joint Commission: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2009, May 1). India-CARICOM Joint Commission. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/3987/IndiaCARICOM+Joint+Commission
11. FIPIC: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. (2015, August 14). First India-Pacific Islands Summit: Outcome Document. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/25637/First+IndiaPacific+Islands+Summit+Outcome+Document
12. G20:
1. Official website of the G20: https://g20.org/
2. G20 Principles for Cooperation: G20 Research Group. (2017). G20 Principles for Cooperation. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/cooperation.html
3. G20 Infrastructure Agenda: G20 Research Group. (2016). G20 Infrastructure Agenda. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/infrastructure.html
4. G20 Trade and Investment Agenda: G20 Research Group. (2016). G20 Trade and Investment Agenda. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/trade.html
5. G20 Financial Regulation and Supervision Agenda: G20 Research Group. (2016). G20 Financial Regulation and Supervision Agenda. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/financial.html
6. G20 Green Finance Study Group: G20 Research Group. (2016). G20 Green Finance Study Group. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/greenfinance.html
7. G20 Global Infrastructure Connectivity Alliance: G20 Research Group. (2016). G20 Global Infrastructure Connectivity Alliance. http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/analysis/connectivity.html
8. G20 Innovation and Digitalization Agenda: G20 Japan 2019. (n.d.). Innovation and Digitalization. https://www.japan.go.jp/g20japan/agenda/innovation_digitalization.html
9. G20 Sustainable Development Agenda: G20 Japan 2019. (n.d.). Sustainable Development. https://www.japan.go.jp/g20japan/agenda/sustainable_development.html
10. G20 Saudi Arabia 2020: G20 Saudi Arabia. (n.d.). G20 Saudi Arabia 2020. https://g20.org/en/g20/Documents/Communique_EN%20(2).pdf

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An overview of the current global political situation...

An overview of the current global political situation, the instability that it is creating, and the reformation of the global world order.

In recent years, the world has witnessed a growing trend of political instability, fuelled by a range of factors such as rising inequality, growing authoritarianism, and escalating geopolitical tensions. This instability is creating significant challenges for the global community, as it threatens to undermine the stability of the current global order and exacerbate global issues like climate change and international economic growth.

One of the key drivers of political instability is the rise of authoritarianism in countries around the world. From Russia and China to Turkey and Egypt, and to USA and Canada, authoritarian regimes are increasingly using their power to suppress opposition and limit civil liberties. This has created a climate of fear and uncertainty, as citizens in these countries are often unsure of their rights and the future of their democracy.

Another factor contributing to global instability is the growing economic inequality within and between countries. As the gap between the rich and poor continues to widen, many people are feeling left behind and are turning to populism and liberalism in response. This has led to the rise of political movements and parties that prioritize national interests over global cooperation, and which often espouse xenophobic or discriminatory views.

At the same time, the world is facing a growing number of geopolitical tensions, which are threatening to destabilize global politics. These include the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, tensions between China and the United States over trade and territorial disputes, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

The conflict in the Middle East is a complex and multifaceted issue that has been ongoing for several decades. There are several factors that have contributed to the conflict, including historical grievances, ethnic and religious differences, geopolitical tensions, and struggles for power and control.

One of the key factors contributing to the conflict in the Middle East is the historical legacy of colonialism and imperialism in the region. During the 19th and early 20th centuries, many countries in the Middle East were colonized by European powers, which often drew arbitrary borders and imposed their own political and economic systems on the region. This created a legacy of resentment and mistrust that continues to fuel conflicts in the region.

Another factor contributing to the conflict in the Middle East is the complex mix of ethnic and religious differences that exist in the region. The Middle East is home to a diverse range of ethnic and religious groups, including Arabs, Persians, Kurds, Jews, Christians, and Muslims. These groups have different languages, cultural practices, and historical grievances, which can create tensions and conflict.

Geopolitical tensions have also contributed to the conflict in the Middle East. The region is home to some of the world's most important strategic resources, including oil and gas reserves. As a result, many powerful countries, including the United States, Russia, and China, have sought to exert their influence in the region, often through support for various regional actors and proxy conflicts. Many countries in the region have experienced political instability, civil war, and violent conflict, as various groups seek to gain or maintain control over territory and resources.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has had a significant impact on the region and the world as a whole. It has led to significant loss of life and displacement of people, as well as political and economic instability. It has also fuelled the rise of extremist groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS, which have carried out acts of terrorism and violence in the region and around the world.

To address the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, there is a need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach that addresses the root causes of the conflict. This will require addressing historical grievances, promoting greater understanding and respect between different ethnic and religious groups, and finding ways to promote economic development and political stability in the region. It will also require greater cooperation between regional and global actors, to promote peace and stability and address the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region.

The rise of these political and economic pressures is causing significant disruptions to the global order, which is leading to the need for a reformation of the global world order. This is not an easy task, as it requires addressing the underlying causes of instability and creating a new framework for cooperation that can help to address these challenges.

One of the key challenges that must be addressed in the reformation of the global world order is the need to balance national interests with global cooperation. As countries become increasingly focused on their own domestic issues, it is becoming more difficult to build consensus and cooperation on issues that affect the world as a whole. This requires a new approach to global governance, one that prioritizes collaboration with competition and recognizes the interconnectedness of global issues like climate change, economic growth, and security.

Another challenge that must be addressed is the need to build a more inclusive and equitable global understanding. This requires addressing the root causes of economic inequality, including the unequal distribution of resources and access to education and healthcare. It also requires addressing the systemic discrimination and prejudice that exists in many societies, including racism, sexism, and other forms of discrimination.

The reformation of the global world order must also address the need for a more effective system of international governance. This includes the need for more effective global institutions, such as the United Nations, to help coordinate international efforts on issues such as climate change, economic growth, and security. It also requires addressing the need for better regulation of global trade and financial systems, to ensure that these systems are fair and equitable for all.

To achieve this, people across the world must work to build societies that are based on the principles of equality, justice, and mutual respect. This requires building an effective global dialogue, which can help to coordinate international efforts on key issues and promote global cooperation.

To address these challenges, there is a need for a reformation of the global world order that can balance national interests with global cooperation, promote inclusivity and equity, and build more effective institutions. This will require a new approach to global governance, one that prioritizes collaboration over competition and recognizes the interconnectedness of global issues.

Ultimately, achieving this vision will require a shared sense of universal responsibility, one that recognizes our interconnectedness as a world community and works together to address the challenges we face. While the road ahead will not be easy, by working together, we can build a more stable, equitable, and just global order that can meet the challenges of the 21st and 22^nd centuries.

 

Taliban of the 21st century

Taliban of the 21^st century 

The Taliban’s agility and ability to adapt has been remarkable. Their gradual acceptance to of the fact that unrestricted violence would hurt their quest for popular support, transformed into sophisticated policy planning and implementation of developmental activities. Step -by -step, they revived and re-started parts of their governance, and invented other systems through trial and error. Much of this process appears to be from the ground-up and influenced by popular demand and local experiences. Their leadership also proceeded to correct many of the flaws and shortcomings that undermined their rule in the 1990s. The ban on women and girls attending school has been removed, though most Taliban officials claim that no ban ever existed, and have publicly stated that women should have access to education. The ban on opium cultivation and its trade, which was a disaster during their earlier government times is clearly no longer in place, but the Taliban do not publicizeise this shift in policy and down-play the opium connection in public. Other subtle differences are their stated respect for other ethnic groups and their embrace of technology, limited as it may be. Circumstances have radically changed for the Taliban since 2001, and their policies and goals have shifted accordingly. Far from being a revolutionary movement of the 1990s, prior to 2022, they considered themselves as a deposed government and the main armed opposition fighting the pro-Western government supported by foreign soldiers. The Taliban leadership itself has also been transformed. Circumstances have forced them to travel outside their villages and also outside the country at times, and they have learned from their travels.

The simple fighters of yester-years are worldly trained politicians today,; transforming themselves from being traditional conservatives into modern Islamists. They have also become better at managing external perceptions, having realised that appearing as educated people is an advantage and it is helpful in manipulating the media. They have become sophisticated; with professional-standard glossy publications, a website in several languages, videos made of high-quality production and highly capable spokesmen that respond rapidly to questions and criticism across social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook and WhatsApp; even though what is publicized on the social media is vastly different from the ground reality in Afghanistan. What exactly do the changes in Taliban policy means for Afghans and the future of Afghanistan will depend on the critical study and analysis of their on-ground actions. The Taliban are led by the Emir ul-Mumenin (leader of the faithful), currently Mullah Haibatullah Akhunzada. The scope and complexity of this position varies according to the person who occupies it, and the current Emir’s functions are more spiritual and political, than as an operational military commander. He is assisted by two deputies, as well as the leadership shura. At the provincial level, there is a governor, appointed officially by the leadership shura. The Taliban now has a quasi-–professional core of individuals who have served for several years across multiple provinces. These governors and local councils / commissions are not completely ‘civilian’, and the governors may serve in a military capacity to varying degrees depending on the context and broader requirements of the office for local governance. Provincial ministers are appointed by the leadership of the relevant council, viz,: education, health and finance; in consultation with the governor of the province. The system has grown more comprehensive over the years, with a dozen committees, some with multiple departments covering a multitude of issues. Significant autonomy is granted to province and district- level officials within the overall framework of the policy.

This flexibility is intentional, in order to accommodate different views and reduce dissent to as little as possible. It also helps to prevent the Taliban from splitting into different factions; since local politics and preferences based on history play a significant role in governance. Some areas might have a higher demand for health services than others, while others might want to give priority to education. The extent to which services have been available in the past also matters.  Areas where customary structures of governance are influential and respected, are in a stronger position to bargain for amenities from the Taliban officials. Individual relationships also influence policies, although the Taliban does not generally welcome individual opinions, since such interactions could be perceived as corruption.  In practice however, the Taliban rely on relationships in every aspect of their governance, due to a lack of trust in general and the widespread suspicion of their motives by the locals and the international interlocutors. Arrangements between the Taliban and civilians are based on a mutual yet unequal exchange, leading to an informal social contract that renders to the Taliban a legitimate authority, and strengthening its credibility as an acceptable form of government; even though it is not a government- based on the choice and free will of the people of Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s agility and ability to adapt has been remarkable. Their gradual acceptance of the fact that unrestricted violence would hurt their quest for popular support, transformed into sophisticated policy planning and implementation of developmental activities. Step -by -step, they revived and re-started parts of their governance, and invented other systems through trial and error. Much of this process appears to be from the ground-up and influenced by popular demand and local experiences. Their leadership also proceeded to correct many of the flaws and shortcomings that undermined their rule in the 1990s. The ban on women and girls attending school has been removed, though most Taliban officials claim that no ban ever existed, and have publicly stated that women should have access to education. The ban on opium cultivation and its trade, which was a disaster during their earlier government times is clearly no longer in place, but the Taliban do not publicize this shift in policy and down-play the opium connection in public. Other subtle differences are their stated respect for other ethnic groups and their embrace of technology, limited as it may be. Circumstances have radically changed for the Taliban since 2001, and their policies and goals have shifted accordingly. Far from being a revolutionary movement of the 1990s, prior to 2022, they considered themselves as a deposed government and the main armed opposition fighting the pro-Western government supported by foreign soldiers. The Taliban leadership itself has also been transformed. Circumstances have forced them to travel outside their villages and also outside the country at times, and they have learned from their travels. 

The Taliban in 2024

Many analysts are of the opinion that the Taliban of 2021 are is different from the earlier Taliban of 2001. While the new leaders are still committed to their traditional ideology, they have learnt new tactics for interactions with the rest of the world, especially the non-Islamic countries. Even today, the command-and-control structure is controlled by the ‘Rahbri Shoora’ (Grand Council of Leadership), and most of its members are veterans of the resistance that battled the Western armies and the Afghan government forces sponsored by the U.S. and NATO. The Supreme leader of the Taliban, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada is the ultimate authority on religious, political and military affairs; and is assisted in his decisions by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a founding member of the modern Taliban who looks after the political branch, Mullah Yaqoob (son of Mullah Omar) who heads the military branch, and Sirajuddin Haqqani (son of guerrilla commander Maulvi Jalaluddin Haqqani) who looks after eastern Afghanistan. Non-–Pashtuns were a part of the Taliban in the 1990s, but now the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and Turkmens have made deep inroads into the Taliban hierarchy. The Tajik leader Qari Deen Muhammed is a member of the Supreme Council while fellow Tajik Qari Fasihudin is the Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces, and Uzbek leader Abdul Salam Hanfi from Faryab is the acting second deputy Prime Minister in the Taliban government.

The Western countries constantly hope for democracy in Afghanistan. However, this is almost an impossibility in an organization like the Taliban who are dedicated to the hardline interpretation of Islamic values. While the Taliban are flexible in the inclusion of ethnic minorities in their government, their views towards women’s empowerment has not changed and women are still denied basic rights to obtain an education or employment. With the passage of time since coming to power, the Taliban have realized that while one generation defeated the Soviet Union and the latest generation defeated the combined forces of the USA and NATO,; administration of a complex country like Afghanistan is extremely difficult. They need international support to assist the people of their country with their basic human needs, and this cannot be achieved through isolation from the world.

Since coming to power, the Taliban has imposed a harsh interpretation of Islamic law in the country, ignoring their earlier pledges to respect the rights of women, and religious and ethnic minority communities. Since regaining control, their actions are reminiscent of their earlier brutal rule of the 1990s, where they are struggling to provide the people of Afghanistan with adequate food supplies and other basic needs. Within a period of just 16 months of forming the government, numerous human rights violations have been recorded against them by the UN mission in Afghanistan. Intimidation of journalists, restriction of freedom of expression, regular suppression of demonstrations and forced disappearance of those who protest against their governance are a regular feature of the Taliban governance. They have re-established the ‘Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice’ to implement Islamic law as defined by the Taliban. Restrictions against women and girls have risen and their access to employment, education, public interactions and other fundamental rights such as access to justice, have been heavily curtailed. Flogging of women for ‘moral crimes,’, physical torture of women’s rights activists, banning them from public parks, limiting their visits to the markets (compulsorily accompanied by a male relative as a chaperone) and requiring women to cover their faces in public,; are contributing to women being erased from public life. According to Mahbouba Seraj, a women’s rights activist, “‘the women of Afghanistan went from being part of the society, being doctors, judges, engineers and officials, to nothing”’ under the Taliban rule. "Even the most basic right, the Right to Education, has been taken away from them" she has stated.

The new power structure has wiped out the gains in the standard of living that were achieved over twenty years of the Western powers’ presence in Afghanistan, with almost all of the population now living in poverty. Most of the people are suffering from some form of food insecurity and the situation is becoming more critical with the stoppage of foreign aid. Violence remains wide-spread with the increased attacks of Taliban by members of the Islamic State of Khorasan, that add to the public suffering. There is a rising concern among international observers that the Taliban’s support to al-Qaeda will pose a continued threat to regional and international security. Despite the Taliban’s publicly stated policy that they will not allow Afghanistan to be used as a base for global terrorism, their policy of offering safe haven and increased freedom to the al-Qaeda has not changed. The United Nation’s April 2024 report states that “al-Qaeda is likely using Afghanistan as a friendly environment to recruit, train and fund raise,”, and is suspected to be re-establishing a strong presence in Afghanistan. 

A “Don” in the White House

Donald Trump, the past and current President of the United States of America is in the daily global news headlines for his tendency to stoke controversies, browbeat opponents and allies in equal measure, and create an atmosphere of fear, resentment and uncertainty across the world. However, he uses this to distract his critics and detractors from the big policy changes that he is making, literally on a daily basis.

 During his first presidential term from 2017 to 2021, the world’s focus was on what he was saying and not on what he was doing, as is today during his second term. As Trump carries forth in public from one self-inflicted crisis to the next, in reality he seems to be having a positive effect on the American people’s lives in the areas of safety from criminals, illegal immigration, judicial activism, economy and business, trade policies and foreign policy, among others.

He has put China in his gun-sight, challenging its position as the second largest economy of the world. Trump is clamping down on China by imposing the tariff on Chinese goods, and this escalating trade war between the two countries has created an uncertainty resulting from the enormous taxes levied on each other’s imports with the tariffs often costing more than the price of goods itself. While the U.S. tax structure varies according to the goods, from zero percent on books to 20% on smartphones, it goes up to 245% on syringes and needles. These increased tariffs (or import duties) have a 20% tax component classified a “Fentanyl” tax as a punishment to China for its high-level flow of this powerful synthetic opioid drug that is lethal even in small doses, causing over 75,000 deaths due to overdose in the USA last year (2023-24).

Trump’s tariff wars on countries across the world are not without its failure. When he initially announced the tariffs, describing them as a “Liberation Day” for Americans, he destroyed the global economy by causing a massive collapse of the financial markets, pushing them almost to the brink of complete disaster. Initially he assured everyone that his tariffs were all part of a master-plan and suggested that he would negotiate tariff arrangements with the affected nations. The hugely negative market response and a loss of over a trillion dollars when the markets crashed, forced him to abandon the plan within days, admitting publicly that he had reversed his decision due to market panic.

Trump’s policies on immigration has spread fear among the undocumented migrants in the USA. His actions have effectively overhauled parts of the U.S. immigration system, including the processing and deportation of people. His administration publicized videos and photos of deportation flights with its occupants tied-up in chains, causing a global outrage and condemnation. But, by putting out videos of people being deported in military aircraft, his has created the myth of being a strong President who is unrelenting and tough on illegal immigration, while hiding the fact that his predecessor Joe Biden had deported 271 migrants to 192 countries in 2024, and over 1.5 million deportations during his four years in office. However, unlike Biden, Trump has suspended the entry of all undocumented migrants to the USA and is turning them away without granting them any asylum hearing.

His complete support for Israel in their war against Hamas in the Gaza, even with Israeli attacks leading to the death of 50,000 Palestinians is now affecting the status of legal migrants into the USA, especially those who took part in the pro-Palestine gatherings on campuses. The Trump administration is now using its immigration enforcement powers to suppress the activities of international students and scholars who participated in pro-Palestine demonstrations or criticized Israel over its military actions in Gaza. Accusing the protestors of being supporters of Hamas, a globally designated terrorist group, the administration is using a rarely invoked statute to authorize the Secretary of State to expel non-citizens from the U.S. citing their presence as a threat to U.S. foreign policy interests. Some have been taken into custody and deported, some fled the country when their visas were cancelled and some have taken their cases to court to seek justice and justification.

So, the question is, why does Trump behave irrationally? Some observers say that he is playing the much used ‘madman’ theory of global politics. The key principle of the madman theory is to convince opponents that a leader is unpredictable and potentially irrational, willing to undertake actions that defy conventional norms or expectations. This psychological tactic relies on the belief that uncertainty and fear can alter the decision-making calculus of adversaries, leading them to make concessions or adopt more conciliatory positions. However, this requires a delicate balancing act, where the leader’s public image has to be carefully managed to maintain that very thin distinction between calculated unpredictability and a genuine threat to international stability.

Trump uses his own version of this theory, where he praises dictators and alienates allies, using chaos to create uncertainty in geo-politics. Today, Canada is in an economic trade war against the U.S., while Denmark is in the process of preventing the promised takeover of Greenland by the Trump administration, even if it means using its military to defend Greenland. Trump seems to be using the ‘theory of chaos’ more than anything else. The Chaos Theory is based on the premise that while chaotic systems display unpredictable behaviour, the hidden side of the systems are a well defined and perfectly determined set of equations that work with high precision. Trump’s daily announcements has thrown the world into uncertainty. While his tariffs on China was expected, his imposition of tariffs on Canada and other friendly states, his refusal to send  any more military equipment to Ukraine, and his disregard for the mediation efforts by the French and the British shocked the Western world, especially the NATO countries.

Trump’s erratic behaviour revolves around two main factors; short-term gains for the U.S. treasury and the containment of China, economically and militarily. He has a transactional approach that gives priority for immediate profit over long term strategic alliances and he treats geopolitics as business deals. He wants to break the growing Russia–China alliance and has the opinion that ending the Ukraine–Russia war quickly would lead to better relations between the U.S. and Russia, while securing economic advantage by acquiring Ukraine’s mineral resources and potentially restarting the Nord Stream pipelines. In this plan, the American interests are predominant and those of traditional allies are secondary. Since Russia seems to be struggling economically, it might keep a distance between itself and China should the U.S. overtures offer tangible financial benefits. China has little to offer Russia apart from ideological solidarity, and pragmatism carry’s more weight than ideology in international politics where financial benefits are prominent.

Trump’s tariffs on various nations, including his neighboring nations of Canada and Mexico are harsh. However, the Indo-Pacific nations of India, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and Australia, have been treated mildly. It might be because these countries form a strategic perimeter around China and Trump needs these countries to support him to contain China. His view of the world seems to divide nations into two categories; those that are necessary to contain China and those who are irrelevant to this goal. It can be jocularly said, that had Canada bordered China, it might not have been targeted with punitive tariffs.

Trump essentially behaves like a crafty mafia don. While in public, he is belligerent, appears reckless and announces grandiose plans to annex Canada and Greenland; his private decisions are very clearly focused on reducing the financial burden of hosting illegal migrants, growing the U.S treasury through tariffs, forcing manufacturers to restart factories inside the U.S. and generate local employment, weaken the leftist–liberal political establishment, combat violent crime, and overall increase the confidence of his supporters and those who voted him into power. And if this means he has to bend and ignore the accepted rules of domestic and international political engagement, so be it. His flip-flops on policy matters is no joke, even though his new nick-name is "TACO" = Trump Always Chickens Out. 

Regardless of whether Donald Trump will go down in history as a 'President who changed the USA' or just a vain and mentally afflicted person - to his MAGA supporters he will always be the Don.

The “Don” rules

 

Understanding the Middle East Crisis: Key Issues and Challenges

The Middle East crisis has been a complex and longstanding issue, rooted in deep political, religious, and territorial disputes. However, the current conflict in the region has taken on new dimensions, making it more intricate than before. In this article, we will analyse four critical aspects of the ongoing crisis: how it differs from earlier conflicts, its long-term economic implications, the reasons for its spread, and the possibility of restoring peace.

1. Why is the Current Conflict Different from Earlier Ones?

While the Middle East has experienced conflicts for decades, the current crisis stands apart due to several significant factors. Unlike earlier wars, which were primarily local or national in nature, the current conflict is more regional and global. One key difference is the involvement of non-state actors such as militias, insurgent groups, and extremist factions like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis; which play pivotal roles alongside traditional state actors.

Additionally, technological advancements have altered the nature of warfare. Cyber warfare, drones, and missile technologies have transformed how battles are fought, making the consequences more devastating. This conflict is also unfolding in an era of heightened social media use, where misinformation, propaganda, and real-time updates fuel emotions and political actions far beyond the immediate region.

The geopolitical landscape is more fragmented than before, with shifting alliances among regional and international powers like the U.S., Russia, and China; each pursuing their own strategic interests. These changes make the current conflict more volatile and unpredictable.

2. Long-term Economic Impact on the Region and Globally

The economic ramifications of the Middle East crisis are expected to be profound and far-reaching. Within the region, conflicts have caused significant destruction of infrastructure, resulting in long-term damage to local economies. Nations such as Syria, Yemen, and Iraq have experienced dramatic declines in their gross domestic product (GDP) due to ongoing conflicts, leaving millions displaced and economies in tatters.

On a global scale, the Middle East is home to some of the world’s largest oil reserves, and any escalation in conflict threatens the stability of global oil supplies. Disruptions in oil production or transportation could lead to price shocks, affecting industries and consumers worldwide. Furthermore, global supply chains, particularly in energy and trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz, could be impacted, creating ripple effects in markets from Europe to Asia.

Reconstruction efforts after the conflict, whenever they begin, will likely require significant international aid, which will put further strain on global financial resources and increase tensions over foreign investments and interventions.

3. Reasons for the Conflict's Spread to Lebanon and Iran

The spread of the conflict towards Lebanon and Iran stems from both historical grievances and contemporary strategic concerns. Hezbollah, a powerful Shiite militia based in Lebanon and supported by Iran, has become deeply involved, viewing its role as part of a broader resistance against Israel and Western influence in the region. Lebanon’s fragile political system and Hezbollah’s militarization make it a likely battleground, as seen in previous conflicts involving Israel and Lebanese forces.

Iran’s involvement is equally significant. As a regional power with ambitions to expand its influence, Iran provides financial and military support to proxy groups across the region, including Hezbollah and other militias in Syria and Iraq. The sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia Muslims also plays a major role, with Iran positioning itself as the leader of the Shia bloc in opposition to Sunni-dominated states such as Saudi Arabia.

The conflict’s spread is further exacerbated by the shifting alliances and rivalries between regional powers, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, all of which have vested interests in either containing or expanding the conflict based on their national security and political agendas.

4. Possibility of Peace Restoration and Global Solutions

Restoring peace in the Middle East remains a daunting task, but it is not entirely impossible. Achieving long-lasting peace will require a multifaceted approach, involving both regional and global stakeholders. Diplomacy will play a key role, and it is essential for the global community to encourage direct negotiations between conflicting parties. International organizations such as the United Nations must take a more proactive stance, facilitating peace talks and ensuring compliance with ceasefire agreements.

Economic incentives can also be leveraged to promote peace. Initiatives aimed at rebuilding war-torn nations and reviving economies could serve as motivation for warring parties to seek resolution. Regional cooperation on issues like water security, infrastructure development, and trade can help reduce tensions by fostering economic interdependence.

Moreover, external actors, including the U.S., Russia, and the EU, must refrain from exacerbating the conflict by supporting opposing sides. Instead, they should focus on diplomatic efforts and reducing arms proliferation in the region. Mediation by neutral states like India or international organizations could help bridge the divides between major regional powers.

While the road to peace is fraught with challenges, including deep-seated mistrust and unresolved political grievances, a concerted global effort that is focused on dialogue, economic recovery, and the de-escalation of military tensions, can help set the stage for a more peaceful and stable Middle East.